Emerging World (Dis)Order
China’s recent military parade in Beijing, held to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, was more than a symbolic gesture-- it was a calculated display of geopolitical realignment and the consolidation of a new illiberal bloc that seeks to openly challenge the Western-led international order. President Trump even accused Chinese President Xi of “conspiring against” the United States with the demonstration. But while the parade aspired to display unity among key US adversaries, it’s China alone that wants to rule the roost, and that singular goal could ultimately hinder its reach.
It's not easy to be friends with someone who is always acting out of self-interest. With Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un standing beside him, President Xi – donning a Mao Zedong-style suit – offered a carefully curated view of a rising China that includes a close alignment with fellow authoritarian states. He wanted to grab the spotlight from President Trump in a dramatic fashion and he’s happy to flank himself with cronies provided he ultimately gets to call the shots.
But when it comes down to the most important things, China isn’t relying on external partners for support. Perhaps more concerning than the political fanfare and impressive military hardware that were on display at the recent parade, was to see just how deeply artificial intelligence is being embedded into Beijing’s military doctrine. And there’s a powerful synergy at play here, where the People's Liberation Army is actively partnering with private companies and civilian universities to accelerate AI development, a strategy known as “civil-military fusion” that’s propelling China forward in the race to AI supremacy.
Indeed, while China might be willing to spend some energy on theatrics with its sundry partners to exert pressure on the West, it’s looking inward when it comes to the most meaningful developments – investing in domestic industries to dominate the new tech frontier and hoping to get its economy back on track along the way.
Middle East in Flux
Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, the Yemeni Houthis have proven to be a thorn in Israel’s side- wreaking havoc on Red Sea vessels and launching missiles at Israel proper. But in late August, the Israelis dealt the terrorist group a physical and emotional blow – killing a dozen Houthis leaders, including the group’s Prime Minister, in an attack that sent a firm signal not only to Iran but to the people of Yemen.
For almost two years, the Houthis – part of Iran’s so-called regional “Axis of Resistance” – have been trying to derail Israel’s efforts against Hamas. While the Israelis have hit back at the Houthis, mostly by targeting weapons infrastructure and Yemeni ports, the IDF has been primarily focused on more important things – like taking down Iran’s most formidable proxy group Hezbollah in Lebanon and making sure that Iran can’t get a nuclear bomb. Because the Houthis have remained a more distant and cohesive force amid the turmoil, the group has risen in regional and domestic stature.
But in July, with the war in Gaza seemingly showing little sign of resolution, senior Israeli defense officials apparently turned their focus to the Houthi threat. The IDF reportedly sequestered over 200 intelligence personnel in a classified bunker in Israel to gather intelligence and develop an operational plan against the group. When the team learned that top-level Houthi leaders would be gathering for a late-August meeting in Sanaa, the IDF was able to quickly pivot to operational mode.
The precision airstrikes that killed Houthi leaders, however, aren’t going to stop the group in its tracks. Many of the leaders hadn’t even been in their roles for long and everyone is dispensable in a cult of martyrdom like the Houthis. But it’s a notable event because it forces the Houthis to shed their veneer of invincibility and it sends the group spiraling. Now, just as we’re seeing in Iran, the group is likely to grow even more aggressive on the domestic front as in its newfound state of paranoia it will hunt down individuals believed to be traitors and make them pay- guilty or not.
As the Houthis continue to launch missiles at Israel, and Israel is inclined to push back more strongly, the physical destruction will likely have an exponential security impact by the internal divisions and fear that it sows. But it’s the Yemenis – not Israelis – who will be most vulnerable to what happens next.
Resource Security, Tech, and Competition
Global gold dynamics are shifting as central banks load up on reserves, prices hit record highs, and new West African finds—like Côte d’Ivoire’s Doropo mine—push the region to the forefront of strategic investment and reshape economic and geopolitical priorities.
For the first time since 1996, central bank gold reserves have surpassed U.S. Treasuries, underscoring pressure on the dollar’s global dominance. Emerging markets have been the critical factor driving official reserves, but as U.S. deficits deepen and the dollar is weakening, developed nations are expected to follow and enter the market.
At the same time, tariff disputes have rattled markets, sending gold past the $3,500 mark to a record high. The move highlights gold’s role as a safe-haven play when equities are looking frothy as a good cappuccino. Gold miners are up nearly 90% this year, while gold ETFs like SGDM and PHYS continue to draw inflows.
But the story is not just about demand. On the supply side, Côte d’Ivoire is emerging as West Africa’s newest heavyweight. A 100+ ton gold discovery in Doropo could produce a substantial amount of gold annually for a decade at competitive costs. Billions in investment are slated, with production targeted for 2028- alongside thousands of jobs and nearly half a billion dollars in expected tax revenue.
Taken together, these developments seemingly mark a turning point. Gold is no longer just a defensive asset; it’s helping to shape the future of reserve management, investor strategy, and geopolitical competition that could lead to uncharted partnerships.
Weekly Wildcard
While protests and riots might be commonplace in Indonesia, the recent demonstrations are some of the largest in decades and they speak to underlying economic and political grievances that won’t be easily assuaged- and could have outsized impact.
Indonesia is the world’s fourth-most populous country, the world’s third largest democracy, and Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The nation’s integral to oil, gas, coal and critical minerals supply chains, and its geographic position demands that it walk a careful political and security line between China and the United States. Further, political turmoil in Jakarta often ripples across the region and can impact the stability and political strategies of key US allies like Australia, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea. So, I’m watching the latest protests with an eye not only towards Indonesia but towards regional and global stability.
As is often the case with such protests, economic and political grievances in Indonesia are mixed. What began outside the House of Representatives in Jakarta as a protest against excessive housing allowances for lawmakers transformed into a violent nationwide protest movement when a motorcycle taxi driver was run over by a police vehicle. Since then, the protests have inspired students, unions, civil society groups, and hundreds of women marching with broomsticks to “sweep away the dirt of the state”- indications that frustrations lie not only with economic inequality but with corruption and the military’s creeping encroachment into civil society.
While President Prabowo Subianto has promised to scale back parliamentary perks in response to the outcry, his decision to order the military and police to take stern action against rioters- at least 10 of whom have been killed- belittles that concession. Indeed, while protests were raging at home, Subianto was attending a military parade in Beijing alongside Presidents Xi and Putin - sending mixed signals reminiscent of 1998 when former Indonesian leader Suharto was in Egypt during the mass riots that ultimately toppled him.
Prabowo’s probably not quite there yet, but his grip on power is less than a year old and this is already his third major protest wave since taking office. Under his rule, the military has been not-so-quietly expanding its role in civil affairs. Right now, for Indonesians, the anger goes beyond perks—it’s about inequality, rising living costs, and disillusionment with a government seen as militarized and unaccountable. And for outside investors and governments, the risk is that unrest in Indonesia spills into economic disruption and regional instability.
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