Emerging World (Dis)Order
Alliances are sometimes forged in friction, a product of a shared enemy vice a collective vision. Such has always been the case, it seems, for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
When Putin, Xi, Pezeshkian, and Modi convene in China on Sunday for the annual SCO Summit, they’ll be joined by nearly 20 other heads of state attempting to chart an alternative world order to the one currently led by Washington.
But the Summit is now more than ever a convention of contradictions. When the ragtag list of leaders puts pen to paper, I’m not expecting anything beyond the usual and quickly forgotten diplomatic platitudes.
Iranian President Pezeshkian will arrive shaken, his country’s nuclear program having been largely destroyed by US and Israeli attacks in June. Fellow SCO members were notably absent in coming to Iran’s aid.
Russian President Putin will put on a tough face, but a beleaguered economy back home and his military remaining mired in Ukraine don’t exactly telegraph inspiration for a new world order.
Chinese President Xi is entangled in a trade war with Washington while quietly preparing for a hot war in Taiwan. His odds of emerging victorious in either appear slim.
And Indian President Modi is stepping foot in China for the first time in seven years, overlooking strained bilateral relations and repeated border rows in order to keep SCO members on side – and maybe learn a thing or two about how to engage President Trump.
New Delhi has been in Washington’s crosshairs in recent weeks, in part because it continues to purchase Russian oil, and 50% tariffs on Indian goods went into effect on Wednesday. Modi needs counsel, even if from strange bedfellows.
I have no doubt the world order is evolving. But the SCO, at least as a grouping, will have little role in shaping it, I'm certain. Since its founding in 2011, the alliance has yet to communicate a viable alternative to the US-led world order. And put simply, 2025 hasn't been their year.
Middle East in Flux
After being systematically pummeled by the Israelis over the course of 12 days in June, in a war effort that was topped off by bunker bomb attacks from the US, Iran has yet to come back to the nuclear negotiating table and Iranian civilians are likely to bear the brunt of what happens next.
That’s because if Iran continues to defy its nuclear inspection and enrichment requirements under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the nuclear deal that was signed back in 2015 and is set to expire on October 18 – the UK, Germany, and France have announced that they’re planning to reinstate the crippling sanctions regime that Iran was under for years before the JCPOA was signed.
While Germany, the UK, France and the United States are all still open to a diplomatic solution over the next few weeks, the Iranian regime has stated that it only wants to talk after the current sanctions have been lifted and Iran is guaranteed a civil nuclear program that very few non-Iranians are trusting will remain civil.
In the coming days, we can expect to see more conversations and attempts at dialogue in regards, but the Iranian regime is in a state of sharp paranoia and embarrassment which could challenge compromise at a time when it’s needed most.
Indeed, if it's true that in the years after the Iranian Revolution Ayatollah Khomeini once stated "You can't have a revolution over the price of a watermelon" it's also true that those who are likely to suffer the most from harsher sanctions right now are the Iranian people. And it's uncertain just how much more they can take after months of drought, civil repression, energy shutdowns and economic hardship while their leadership is prioritizing attacks on Jews and Israelis abroad, weapons purchases and its tight grip on society above all else.
Resource Security, Tech and Competition
The war in Ukraine has resulted in catastrophic destruction to life and property. But if there's upside to such horror, it's that Ukraine looks poised to become a major defense tech hub post-war.
Canada this week penned a $1.5bn deal to advance this prospect. Signed in Kyiv on Ukraine’s Independence Day, the pact brings new defense-industrial cooperation between Canada and Ukraine, funding drones, cyber defense, and ammo supplies, while creating joint production hubs to turn Ukraine from an arms recipient into a defense tech innovator.
Tying North American capital, European production, and frontline innovation into one transatlantic defense economy could pay major dividends. Canadian Prime Minister Carney also outlined $31 million for reconstruction and humanitarian aid in the coming years.
Ukraine faces a severe shortage of unmanned systems and does not have enough production to meet frontline demand. Projects like Brave 1, linking Ukrainian startups with Western tech firms, aim to accelerate AI-enabled drone development and cyber defense tools for the battlefield. Canada’s role brings financing, expertise, and more access to global supply chains.
For investors, the deal signals dual-use growth potential, in which defense tech, cybersecurity, and manufacturing capacity all stand to benefit as joint ventures scale up. Canada’s “aid-plus-investment” model could see Ukrainian firms exporting defense tech across Europe.
Meanwhile, the EU's Readiness 2020 Plan is mobilizing €800bn to rearm Europe, streamline procurement, and expand defense production lines.
Weekly Wildcard
North Korea’s Wonsan-Kalma beach resort is more than towels and water slides – it’s an attempt at diplomatic détente and a trial run for a regime trying to look open without letting anyone in.
Russian tourists began trickling into the pristine facility in July. Under heavy guard and the watchful eye of the Kim regime, the message was clear: the resort was not for global crowds. It was built for Russians. Even Chinese nationals, long the economic and geopolitical lifeline of Pyongyang, were suspiciously absent from the proceedings.
As Kim deepens ties with Putin, a geopolitical shift appears underway among Washington's chief adversaries. North Korea, once tethered almost entirely to Beijing, is now repositioning itself in Moscow's orbit. It was telling that only Russian diplomatic personnel were present at Wonsan-Kalma's opening ceremony, and in a recent letter to Putin, Kim described the bilateral relationship to be "in full bloom."
But a shift doesn’t indicate a rupture – Kim and Putin are expected in Beijing for China’s military parade marking the 80thanniversary of the end of World War II. It will be their first public appearance together alongside Xi Jinping, a carefully choreographed demonstration of unity meant to be seen in Washington.
Still, photogenic appeal of an alliance says little about its structural integrity. A shared hostility to the US is not enough to cement an alliance if national interests diverge. For the time being, it benefits all three leaders to pose together, but it's worth watching whether the smiles will hold once the cameras stop flashing.